I am pleasantly surprised and inspired by the results of the US Presidential Election. Although the European press has been heralding a landslide victory for Obama recently, it chose to ignore the polls signalling a closer contest, and the treatment of the election by their US counterparts, so I was far from sure what would happen. Even in London, there is a great sense of excitement. As one friend put it, Obama is much more of a world citizen than his predecesors, with his background and experience, an American with whom Africans, Asians and Europeans can seemingly identify (starting with the celebrations in these continents on his victory).
Nevertheless, there were points in his campaign in which I feared that he may go the same way as Segloene Royal's bid for the French presidency in 2007: a young(er) upstart from outside of the party hierarchy, who wins the nomination at the expense of a party "dinosaur" and as a result the previously warring factions do not unite sufficiently behind the candidate, causing a weak campaign and ultimately defeat. However, there are some important differences between the two situations. Firstly, the "party establishment" in Obama's case was the Clintons, who were actually upstarts themselves in their day (e.g. the 1992 election campaign, which Bill won) whereas Royal's opponents from within the Parti Socialiste were indeed the most established, long-standing, prominent members. Secondly, Obama managed to assemble a capable team around him to devise strong policies, whereas Royal failed to do this and was powerless in particular against Sarkozy's persuasive economic rhetoric. Thirdly, following this, the meltdown of the financial markets boosted Obama; Royal was only a few months too early for the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the consequent questioning of the logic of the "Anglo-Saxon" capitalist system. Sarkozy could point to the UK economy, then one of the strongest in the EU, and assert that France should be modelled in this way.
In Scottish politics, the Glenrothes by-election takes place tomorrow. Apparently this has been the longest by-election campaign according to The Herald. Labour had a significant majority in the seat in the last election; however much has changed in the political landscape since then, not in the least the SNP victory in the "safe Labour seat" of Glasgow East. Despite Gordon Brown's popularity (at least within the Labour party itself) increasing due to his handling of the banking crisis, the SNP's popularity seems high, yet they have had a huge number of activists campaiging in the constituency according to press reports.
Nevertheless, there were points in his campaign in which I feared that he may go the same way as Segloene Royal's bid for the French presidency in 2007: a young(er) upstart from outside of the party hierarchy, who wins the nomination at the expense of a party "dinosaur" and as a result the previously warring factions do not unite sufficiently behind the candidate, causing a weak campaign and ultimately defeat. However, there are some important differences between the two situations. Firstly, the "party establishment" in Obama's case was the Clintons, who were actually upstarts themselves in their day (e.g. the 1992 election campaign, which Bill won) whereas Royal's opponents from within the Parti Socialiste were indeed the most established, long-standing, prominent members. Secondly, Obama managed to assemble a capable team around him to devise strong policies, whereas Royal failed to do this and was powerless in particular against Sarkozy's persuasive economic rhetoric. Thirdly, following this, the meltdown of the financial markets boosted Obama; Royal was only a few months too early for the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the consequent questioning of the logic of the "Anglo-Saxon" capitalist system. Sarkozy could point to the UK economy, then one of the strongest in the EU, and assert that France should be modelled in this way.
In Scottish politics, the Glenrothes by-election takes place tomorrow. Apparently this has been the longest by-election campaign according to The Herald. Labour had a significant majority in the seat in the last election; however much has changed in the political landscape since then, not in the least the SNP victory in the "safe Labour seat" of Glasgow East. Despite Gordon Brown's popularity (at least within the Labour party itself) increasing due to his handling of the banking crisis, the SNP's popularity seems high, yet they have had a huge number of activists campaiging in the constituency according to press reports.
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